BRUSSELS: Global temperatures in 2024 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time, bringing the world closer to breaching commitments governments made under the climate deal post-Paris 2015, scientists said Friday.
The World Meteorological Organization confirmed the 1.5 degree Celsius breach after reviewing data from US, UK, Japanese and EU scientists.
“Global warming is a cold and hard reality,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. “There is still time to avoid the worst climate disaster. But leaders must act – now.”
The gloomy assessment comes as wildfires fueled by fierce winds sweep through Los Angeles, leaving 10 people dead and nearly 10,000 structures destroyed so far. Forest fires are one of many disasters that climate change is making more frequent and severe.
The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) says climate change is pushing the planet’s temperature to levels never before experienced by modern humans. Scientists have linked climate change to greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels.
C3S says the planet’s average temperature in 2024 will be 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than in the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900. WMO says the past 10 years have been the 10 hottest on record.
Climate change is causing storms and torrential rainfall to increase because hotter atmosphere can hold more water, leading to heavy downpours. Atmospheric water vapor reached a record high in 2024 and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it was the third wettest year on record.
In 2024, Bolivia and Venezuela suffered catastrophic fires, while torrential floods hit Nepal, Sudan and Spain, and heatwaves in Mexico and Saudi Arabia killed thousands. While climate change is currently affecting people from the richest to the poorest on Earth, the political will to tackle the problem has weakened in some countries.
Governments promised under the 2015 Paris Agreement to try to prevent the rise in average global temperatures from exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
US President-elect Donald Trump, who took office on January 20, has called climate change a hoax, rejecting the global scientific consensus. During his first term in office, he withdrew Washington from the Paris Agreement and vowed to promote more fossil fuel production and roll back President Joe Biden’s push toward alternative energy.
Recent elections in Europe have shifted political priorities toward industrial competitiveness, with some European Union governments seeking to weaken what they see as climate policies. causing harm to business operations.
Matthew Jones, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia in the UK, said climate-related disasters will become more common “as long as progress is made in addressing the root causes of climate change.” still slow”.
EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said last year’s 1.5C rise showed that climate action must be a priority.
“It’s extremely complicated, in a very difficult geopolitical context, but we don’t have an alternative,” he told Reuters.
Chukwumerije Okereke, a professor of climate governance at Britain’s University of Bristol, said the 1.5C milestone would serve as a “rude awakening for key political actors to get their act together”.
The UK Met Office confirmed 2024 is likely to rise by 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, while also estimating a slightly lower average temperature of 1.53C for the year.
Buontempo noted that 2024 does not breach that target because it measures long-term average temperatures, but added that growing greenhouse gas emissions put the world ahead of the Paris target.
He added that countries could still quickly cut emissions to avoid temperatures rising further to catastrophic levels.
“It’s not a done deal. We have the power to change the trajectory,” Buontempo said.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, in the atmosphere reached a new high of 422 parts per million in 2024, C3S said.
Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at the US nonprofit Berkeley Earth, said he predicted 2025 would be one of the hottest years on record, but it probably wouldn’t top the charts. He noted that temperatures in early 2024 have increased further due to El Niño, a warming weather pattern that is now trending toward a cooler La Nina pattern.
“It will still be in the top three warmest years,” he said.
Global warming exceeds 1.5°C by 2024 https://reut.rs/4asHJo5
(Reporting by Kate Abnett and Ali Withers; additional reporting by Hannah Lang in New York; Editing by Nia Williams, Louise Heavens and David Gregorio)