The 2025 Oscars season is upon us, and with nominations coming in a month – and the winners being announced two months later, its time to make some bold predictions about what will and will not happen. As awards season kicks in, it is easy for consensus to emerge. Certain movies gain steam throughout the year and are viewed as the indisputable group of contenders. And with the sheer volume of precursors, they create a sense of what movies will be recognized by the Academy Awards voting body. That can make everything feel a bit predetermined.
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There is no getting around the fact that certain movies are well positioned to win throughout awards season. Our predicted Oscar nominees in all categories are just one example of that. These predictions use a variety of data points to make educated projections of what movies will find favor from voters. However, there is always room for surprises, as the Oscars never wholly align with any of the precursors. While we’ve outlined other predictions before, there are also bold predictions about the 2025 Oscars that I can see happening which go against the current state of the race.
10 Denis Villeneuve Will Not Be Nominated For Best Director
His Work In Dune: Part Two Was Expected To Bring An Oscar Nomination
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Denis Villeneuve is no stranger to being snubbed by the Oscars in the Best Director category. It happened with 2021’s Dune when he missed out on the field. It is predicted that Villeneuve will get a nomination for Dune 2, as he’s been a contender for months. The sequel arguably is an even better movie and adaptation of Frank Herbert’s sci-fi novel than the first film. And with Villeneuve rising to be one of Hollywood’s biggest auteurs who mixes in blockbuster work, there was a sense he could follow Christopher Nolan and finally win his Best Director Oscar even.
Yet, Denis Villeneuve could very well miss out on the 2025 Oscars Best Director nomination. This is not something that is necessarily desired – I think he’s more than deserving of a nomination – but he’s not doing that well in awards season. Villeneuve’s snub at the Golden Globes for Best Director speaks volumes. With the director already confirmed to be making Dune 3 soon, it would make sense for the Academy to overlook him this time with the expectation of rewarding him with the trilogy capper.
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9 Demi Moore Will Be Nominated For Best Actress
Her Bold Performance Is One Of The Year’s Best
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Demi Moore is absolutely deserving of an Oscar nomination for The Substance. It’s not something that is currently predicted to happen, but that’s why these are called bold predictions. The Substance does not meet the normal boxes of an Oscar contender, and the same is true of Moore’s performance. Still, she delivers some recognition for a role that put her at the forefront of a body-horror movie where she descends into madness and must make all of Elisabeth’s desires and emotions feel believable – which she did.
The Academy does not typically recognize performances that are even somewhat tinged with horror, which is why Moore has been thought of as an outsider in the 2025 Oscars Best Actress race for so long. However, the movie also marks a great comeback for Moore as a leading star. Even if her chances of pulling off a win are next to impossible, a nomination would be a great opportunity for the Academy to point more people toward her performance.
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8 Sebastian Stan Will Become An Oscar Nominee For Best Actor
But For What Movie?
Sebastian Stan is undoubtedly best known as playing Bucky Barnes a.k.a. The Winter Soldier in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, as its a role that has dominated his career for the last 13 years. And yet, Stan has made waves in recent years with his dramatic performances in I, Tonya or Pam & Tommy. 2024 marks arguably his best year yet thanks to his leading roles in two acclaimed movies, The Apprentice and A Different Man. While his Donald Trump performance gained more attention in the news, neither project necessarily seemed like an Oscar contender out the gates.
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Stan’s turn from superhero movie performer to dramatic work is why he should become an Oscar nominee in 2025. Whether he’s nominated for The Apprentice or A Different Man is no different. Either movie could get the job done and bring Stan into the Oscars picture for the first time. Given the potential baggage associated with The Apprentice, recognizing A Different Man could be how he ultimately gets in and shakes up the predicted 2025 Oscars Best Actor field.
7 Denzel Washington Won’t Win Best Supporting Actor
He’s The Clear Favorite Right Now
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Denzel Washington has been the presumptive Best Supporting Actor Oscar winner next year since before Gladiator II came out. Based on the trailers alone, the former Oscar winner vaulted to the top of predictions, and his performance in the movie itself more than warrants that placement. It almost feels right now that Denzel is an absolute lock to win the Best Supporting Actor award, and that’s exactly why he might not win at the end of awards season.
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Related Gladiator 2 Isn’t Denzel Washington’s Only Shot At An Oscar Nomination In 2025
Denzel Washington’s Oscar chances in 2025 don’t solely lie with his role in Gladiator 2 since also produced the critically-acclaimed The Piano Lesson.
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Denzel is already a two-time Oscar winner, so the thought that he should win again is a popular one. However, he’s already seemed to reach the heights of his campaign. Most have seen his work and are impressed by it, but someone like Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is still rising. The more the movie is seen, the more support seems to come his way. That’s all at the cost of support for Denzel. Without any new angles to extend his campaign, he might not get into the three-time Oscar winners club.
6 The Wild Robot Will Be Nominated For Best Picture
DreamWorks’ Movie Can Be A First
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The Best Picture lineup at the Oscars is typically filled with the same types of movies. Biopics, dramas, and the year’s most acclaimed mid-to-big budget fare is what commonly makes up the list of 10 nominees. That’s expected again in 2025 with indies like Anora and Conclave, epics like The Brutalist, biopics like A Complete Unknown, and blockbusters like Wicked and Dune: Part Two. However, we’ll boldly predict that The Wild Robot gets into the 2025 Oscars Best Picture race too.
DreamWorks has never had an animated film nominated for Best Picture
It is not completely unheard of for animated movies to become Best Picture nominees, but it has only happened three times. DreamWorks has never had an animated film nominated for Best Picture. Yet, The Wild Robot is one of the best movies of the year – not just the best animated movie of 2024. While the film is sure to be nominated for Best Animated Feature, its potential to earn nominations in Best Song, Best Score, and more gives it a roadmap to enter the Oscars’ biggest category. I think it should, and hopefully voters do too.
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5 Gladiator 2 Will Not Win A Single Oscar
That’s A Huge Contrast To The Original Movie
Custom Image by Lewis Glazebrook
Gladiator 2 had major Oscars expectations to match after how Ridley Scott’s original film performed. With 12 nominations, Gladiator was an Oscars powerhouse. It won five Oscars, including Best Picture. There was some optimism that the sequel would be equally revered by voters and hopes that Scott could even win his first Best Director Oscar at last. There’s still a good chance for Gladiator 2 to earn several nominations – but it won’t win any of them.
Gladiator 2 is not nearly as great of a film as the original movie, and that drop in quality is sure to be felt by Oscar voters. While it could still pick up nominations in Best Supporting Actor and several below-the-line categories, it’s not necessarily a frontrunner in them – outside of Supporting Actor. That would leave Gladiator 2 empty-handed then when the Oscars conclude if Denzel does not win and none of the technical aspects are recognized.
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4 Nosferatu’s Lily-Rose Depp Will Be Nominated For Best Actress
The Oscars Could Recognize True Horror
Image via Universal
Horror movies traditionally do not perform well at the Oscars, including in Best Actress. Jodie Foster (Silence of the Lambs), Kathy Bates (Misery), and Natalie Portman (Black Swan) are the only horror-related leading performances that have ever won. The track record of just getting nominated isn’t great either, with Sissy Spacek (Carrie, 1976) and Ellen Burstyn (The Exorcist, 1973) as two of the limited examples. Usually it takes an undeniably great horror movie and leading actress to breakthrough at the Oscars.
That is what 2024 has with Nosferatu and Lily-Rose Depp. Even before the film hits theaters, her exceptional performance has been raved about from an emotional and physical perspective. The appreciation for Robert Eggers’ film could bring her into contention then. The Best Actress category is very competitive, but it’s a bold prediction for a reason. Lily-Rose Depp would accomplish what Anya Taylor-Joy (The Witch) couldn’t do then.
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3 Emilia Pérez Will Have The Most Oscar Nominations In 2025
Netflix Is Great At Securing Oscar Nominations
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Emilia Pérez is a divisive contender this awards season, but it is sure to be recognized in some capacity at the 2025 Oscars. It’s likely to be in Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Song. But, the movie could earn nominations in several other categories above and below the line. In fact, a bold prediction is that it will lead the way in terms of Oscar nominations for all movies.
Just by playing it safe, Emilia Pérez should have five Oscar nominations come nomination morning. However, it could also double up in Best Supporting Actress and Best Song potentially. There are also additional below-the-line categories in which it can score nominations, like Best Cinematography. That would set up the movie to come close to or eclipse double-digit Oscar nominations. That’s why we think it will lead all movies in 2025 with the number of Oscar nominations.
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2 Wicked Will Win The Most Oscars In 2025
Wicked Could Be The Powerhouse Of Awards Season
Wicked is certainly gaining steam in awards circles. Winning at precurrors has led to it rising in predictions about how many nominations it will get. There’s now a real chance that Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, and Best Costuming are spots for it. The high number of nominations Wicked is seemingly heading for is expected at this point. But predicting it to be the biggest winner of the night is a bit bolder.
Related Wicked’s Best Picture Chances Rely On It Breaking A 21-Year-Old Oscars Streak: How It’s Hurt By Being A Musical & Can It Still Win?
Wicked is finally in theaters & it’s getting a lot of attention. But what are the musical’s Best Picture chances? We look back at the past to assess.
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The 2025 Oscars have several major contenders, and it’s thought that Anora, Conclave, The Brutalist, or Emilia Pérez could be the films that win the most awards. However, momentum is on Wicked‘s side to pull off upsets in a few major categories. If it can get those nominations, it could end the night with five or more victories. Based on recent Oscars history, that would put in the running to have won the most Oscars this year.
1 The 2025 Oscars Will Announce A Stunts Category Is Coming Soon
It’s About Time, Right?
This last bold prediction has nothing to do with the actual winners or nominees at the 2025 Oscars. Instead, we’re predicting that this is the year that the Academy will decide to move forward with a Best Stunts category and that an announcement will come during the ceremony. Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt could return as presenters after promoting The Fall Guy at last year’s ceremony – and including a jab at the Academy for its lack of stunts recognition in the movie – and be part of the announcement.
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Since the Academy previously announced that Best Casting will be a new category starting with the 2026 Oscars, the announcement coming at next year’s ceremony could confirm that Best Stunts is also being added – bringing the total number of Oscar categories to 25. That would be a great development to come from the 2025 Oscars season and position the Academy Awards to recognize a broader range of films starting next year.